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Modelled non-stationary kilometer-scale hourly precipitation extremes of a 100-year event under 2 GWL scenarios for Germany

Given the importance of sub-daily extreme precipitation events for the occurrence of pluvial floods, it is a key component in climate change adaptation to quantify the likelihood of such extreme events under current and future climate conditions. Such assessments are usually limited by a lack of sufficiently dense and sub-daily precipitation observations, (ii) high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model (CPM) simulations that realistically represent sub-daily precipitation extremes, and (iii) statistical methods that allow us to extrapolate extreme precipitation return levels under limited data availability and non-stationary conditions (i.e., climate change) based on the main governing physical processes.

We overcome these constraints through the utilization of kilometer-scale hourly radar precipitation estimates (RADKLIM) and spatially disaggregated observed daily temperature data (HYRAS-DE-TAS), and the implementation of a novel CPM ensemble covering the entirety of Germany, obtained from the NUKLEUS project within the BMBF-funded RegIKlim (Regionale Information zum Klimahandeln) initiative. Additionally, we introduce the Temperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic statistical model for eXtreme return levels (TENAX) model, a new approach that integrates daily temperature as a covariate, aligning with observed Clausius-Clapeyron scaling rates. This innovation results in a groundbreaking dataset of hourly extreme precipitation for Germany, marking the first instance of accounting for non-stationary climate conditions, i.e., in a +2K and +3K warmer world. The new dataset contains kilometer-scale hourly precipitation extremes for the return level of a 100-year event. Due to the inherent biases of radar-based estimates compared to ground observations, the

precipitation extremes have been bias-adjusted on return level basis using KOSTRA.

Simple

Date (Publication)
2024-03-19
Edition

1

Citation identifier
PrecExtr100yr
Citation identifier
doi:10.26050/WDCC/PrecExtr100yr
Principal investigator
  Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - Dr. Patrick Laux
not filled
Author
  Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - Dr. Patrick Laux
not filled
Publisher
  WDCC
Point of contact
  Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - Dr. Patrick Laux
not filled
Name

NetCDF

Keywords
  • KARE

Keywords
  • climate impact

Keywords
  • extreme events

Use limitation

CC-BY-4.0: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Language

eng; USA

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Supplemental Information

info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/BMBF//01LR2006D/DE//RegIKLIM - KARE (Regional Information on Climate Action)

Distribution format
  • NetCDF ()

Transfer size
6
OnLine resource
https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acronym=PrecExtr100yr
Hierarchy level
collection
Attribute description
precipitation_amount
Descriptor

"Amount" means mass per unit area. "Precipitation" in the earths atmosphere means precipitation of water in all phases. [CF-Standard Name]; unit: kg m-2

File identifier
wdc-climate.de:5275119 XML
Metadata language

eng; USA

Hierarchy level
collection
Hierarchy level name

PrecExtr100yr

Date stamp
2024-03-14T11:26:00
Metadata standard name

ISO 19115

Metadata standard version

ISO 19115-2:2009

Point of contact
  Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - Dr. Patrick Laux
not filled
 
 

Overviews

Spatial extent

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Keywords


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